Mainstream Political Parties Gain Support at Far-right’s Expense
March 22nd, 2012
The poll conducted in mid-March with a 1,500-strong sample
(18 years of age and above) shows a 19% support for Fidesz (cc. 1.5 million
people) and a 14% support for the Socialist Party (MSZP) among eligible voters,
which would translate into 1.1 million voters. For both party this means a
1-percentage-point gain from February. Last month their popularity grew by 2
ppts each.
Support for green party LMP has been fluctuating within a tight range over the
past 18-24 months. The party is at the height of this range now with a 5%
support among eligible voters, which translates into a cc. 400,000-strong voter
base.
The camp of far-right nationalist Jobbik party has been shrinking gradually
over the past quarter. Its support ebbed from 10% in December 2011 to 7% by
mid-March. This means the party could count on some 600,000 people to vote for
it if elections were held this Sunday. The Democratic Coalition, a creation of
former Socialist Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány, has been enjoying stagnating
support (2%) for months. This means about 150,000-200,000 supporters.
Ipsos finds it interesting that the political lethargy that
was observed at the turn of the year has abated. While about one third of the
population said they would cast their ballot in an election, now about 40% of
the eligible voters said they would turn up at the voting booths this Sunday.
The ratio of those with no party preference has declined, from a 57% peak to
52%. This means still more than half of the eligible voters are either
undecided about which party to support or would not vote at all.
A consequence of the rise in political activity is that both the Socialist Party
and Fidesz boosted their voter base by about 250,000 people each since the
beginning of the year.
The rise in the number of Fidesz supporters in the past few months can be
attributed to the return of those who had previously left the party. In early 2012
42% of its supporters said they voted for the now ruling party in the 2010
spring election, while in the mid-March poll 49% of the respondents said they
were loyal that way to Fidesz.
The Socialists had never lost its appeal that much, with 75% of those voting
for it two years ago still supporting it - there is no change in that. Its new
supporters are mostly those who had not cast their ballot in 2010 and a few
tens of thousands have previously preferred Fidesz, Ipsos said.
Ipsos believes that the rise in the popularity of Fidesz and
MSZP may have something to do with the relationship with the European Union. So
far, the opinion about Hungary’s
accession to the bloc has been quite negative among the supporters of the
ruling party: 53% said the overall balance of the country’s EU membership is
negative, while 37% said it brought advantages. As the popularity of Fidesz
grew, this ratio changed to 58%-32%. An opposite change occurred within the
MSZP camp. While previously 50% of them said being member of the European
family was overall detrimental for the country and 43% said it was beneficial,
now 48% of the respondents said EU membership was advantageous for Hungary and 43%
of them said the balance was negative.
Source: www.portfolio.hu/en
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